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ESPN’S FPI not favorable for the state of Utah

With the release of ESPN’s Football Power Index, we’ve gotten a good look at how the global leader in sports and its algorithm views the FBS teams here in Utah.

We’ve already broken down both Utah and BYU’s statistical odds according to FPI, and they were both disappointing according to ESPN stats.

Utah was scheduled for 5e in the Big 12 with 7.8 wins and an 8.2% chance of taking home the Big 12 title.

The Utes were given a 12.5% ​​chance of appearing in the new playoff format.

I can only assume the Utes and the fans themselves have higher expectations.

BYU was projected to finish 2NL to hang on with 4.8 wins and a 0.5 chance of winning the conference.

In playoff terms, 0.6% was the less-than-promising number.

Once again BYU and their fans likely have higher expectations of being able to top a Cincinnati or Arizona State, two teams they trailed in the FPI.

Moving further north, was ESPN friendlier to the team that lived in Cache Valley?

The short answer is: no, no, they weren’t.

Of the twelve teams that call the Mountain West home, Utah State would finish seventhe generally in terms of chances to conquer the Mountain West.

Just two seasons removed from a Mountain West title, the Aggies were given a projected win total of 5.7.

This isn’t a crazy bet, considering the Aggies have finished with six wins in two straight seasons.

In multiple simulations, FPI gave Utah State a 53.2% chance of winning six games and becoming bowl eligible.

In terms of the bigger picture, USU was given a 3.9% chance to win the Mountain West overall.

That percentage of 3.9 is just above Wyoming (3.8%) and a hair higher than the state of Colorado (3.2%).

It also trumps Hawaii, New Mexico and Nevada.

Last year’s winner, Boise State, is once again the overwhelming favorite to come out on top with a 36.2% share of taking the Mountain West and possibly ending up in the playoffs (16.2%)

Utah State had the same chance of making the playoffs as BYU at 0.6%.

The full odds to win the division are as follows:

BOISE STATE BRONCOS (36.2%)

FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS (18.1%)

SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS (8.9%)

SAN JOSE SPARTANS (8.7%)

AIR FORCE SUBJECTS (7.1%)

UNLV REBELS (6.3%)

UTAH STATE AGGIES (3.9%)

WYOMING COWBOYS (3.8%)

COLORADO STATE RAMS (3.2%)

HAWAII RAINBOW WARRIORS (1.8%)

NEW MEXICO LOBOS (1.3%)

NEVADA WOLF PACK (0.8%)

That’s three FBS teams in the state of Utah hoping to prove the math, formula-loving, nerd of an FPI wrong.

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