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Biden vs. Trump Polls – The Hill and DDHQ

Trump has a 1.0% lead based on 727 polls.

June 4, 2024

Photo of Trump

Trump

Photo of Biden

Biden

Estimation

95% of polls fall within this range

Polling average unskewer

Our unskewer is a way to adjust for the biases you think are reflected in the polls. For example, if a Republican candidate is at 44% and a Democrat is at 42%, moving our unskewer 2 points to the left reduces the Republican candidate’s margin by 2 points.

Rep. biasNo biasdem. Prejudice

A little background… The 2024 national popular vote average between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is a key indicator of the political landscape as the United States gears up for new presidential elections. This matchup is a rematch of the 2020 presidential election, with Biden looking to continue his leadership and Trump looking to regain the presidency. Biden defeated Trump in 2020, beating key states such as Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

The polls for the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections are based on an analysis by the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), which compares actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight’s Generic Ballot polling average to the adjusted U.S. House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).

Headshot of Donald Trump

Donald Trump is an American businessman, television personality, and politician who served as the 45th President of the United States from January 2017 to January 2021. Before his presidency, Trump was known for his real estate empire and for hosting the reality TV show The Intern.” His presidency was notable for his non-traditional, often controversial approach and prioritization of America-first policies. impeached twice by the House of Representatives, first in 2019 and then in 2021, but was acquitted by the Senate both times.

Joe Biden's head shot

Joe Biden is an American politician and member of the Democratic Party, serving as the 46th President of the United States. Before his presidency, he served as vice president under President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2017. He previously represented the state of Delaware in the U.S. Senate, where he held that seat from 1973 to 2009. Biden’s extensive political career has focused on issues such as foreign policy, criminal justice and civil rights.

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